Discipline: Ecology Environmental and Earth Sciences
Subcategory: Ecology
Session: 1
Room: Senate
Daniel Breininger - Florida Institute of Technology
Co-Author(s): Christopher Ryzowicz, New College of Florida, 5800 Bay Shore Rd., Sarasota, FL 34243Motti Goldberger, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742Michael Splitt, Florida Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aviation, 150 W University Blvd, Melbourne, FL 32901Robert van Woesik, Florida Institute of Technology, Dept. of Ocean Engineering & Marine Sciences, 150 W University Blvd, Melbourne, FL 32901Nezamoddin N. Kachouie, Florida Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mathematical Sciences, 150 W University Blvd, Melbourne, FL 32901
Ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP) is a common and dangerous issue for people in equatorial regions, resulting in health, and economic losses. Global climate change is expected to result in more CFP cases because the dinoflagellates that contain the ciguatera toxins prefer warmer ocean temperatures and open reefs [1]. With most cases not being reported in Florida [2], there are limited studies regarding CFP at Florida. With the observed increase in the CFP cases in Florida, it is essential to investigate and identify the associated factors. In this study, season, total monthly Florida population, amberjack (AJ) and red snapper (RS) landings, storm intensity, and degree heating week (DHW) coral bleaching index were compiled to analyze their correlations in predicting monthly CFP cases in Florida. Modeling CFP is difficult because the environmental variables take time for the poison to bioaccumulate up the food chain to eventually reach people. So, optimal cumulative lags (using AIC) were found for each predictor except for population and DHW, because these two predictors have already been calculated over some time intervals. Both storm intensity and the DHW create new surfaces for the dinoflagellates attachment, so, it was expected that they have a positive impact on the number of CFP cases. Similarly, it was expected that the summer season and DHW have a positive impact on CFP cases as the dinoflagellates prefer warmer water. Moreover, population and fish weights were expected to increase the number of cases because they give more opportunity for CFP to be contracted.A Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model (ZINB) was determined to be most relevant due to the unreported cases and over-dispersion of data. The identified optimal model contains population, season, the interaction of DHW and AJ, and the interaction of population and RS. Unexpectedly, the storm intensity was not identified as an impactful predictor in the optimal model. In summary, the predictions obtained by the proposed count model can be used for spatiotemporal assessment of the CFP risk to inform fishermen and seafood consumers in Florida. This model can be potentially improved by including more specific fish landing and storm intensity data. In the future work, we will incorporate time series analysis (ARMA model) and spatiotemporal decomposition (Wavelet) for analysis of environmental and climate predictors. [1]. R. Bagnis, S. Chanteau, E. Chungue, J.M. Hurtel, T. Yasumoto, and A. Inoue. Originsof ciguatera fish poisoning: a new dinoflagellate, Gambierdiscus toxicus Adachi andFukuyo, definitively involved as a causal agent. Toxicon, 18(2):199–208, 1 1980.[2]. Daniel B. Gingold, Matthew J. Strickland, and Jeremy J. Hess. Ciguatera Fish Poisoningand Climate Change: Analysis of National Poison Center Data in the United States,2001–2011. Environmental Health Perspectives, 122(6):580–586, 6 2014.
Funder Acknowledgement(s): NSF REU Grant to Dr. Nezamoddin N. Kachouie, Florida Institute of Technology
Faculty Advisor: Nezamoddin N. Kachouie, nezamoddin@fit.edu
Role: This project was one of the projects in the REU Summer 2021 Program of Statistical Modeling with Applications to Geoscience (SMAG ) at Florida Institute of Technology under direct supervision of Dr. Nezamoddin N. Kachouie and Dr. Lazarus. As a graduate student participant, I was involved in all aspects of this project working with a team of two undergrad students.