• Skip to main content
  • Skip to after header navigation
  • Skip to site footer
ERN: Emerging Researchers National Conference in STEM

ERN: Emerging Researchers National Conference in STEM

  • About
    • About AAAS
    • About the NSF
    • About the Conference
    • Partners/Supporters
    • Project Team
  • Conference
  • Abstracts
    • Undergraduate Abstract Locator
    • Graduate Abstract Locator
    • Abstract Submission Process
    • Presentation Schedules
    • Abstract Submission Guidelines
    • Presentation Guidelines
  • Travel Awards
  • Resources
    • Award Winners
    • Code of Conduct-AAAS Meetings
    • Code of Conduct-ERN Conference
    • Conference Agenda
    • Conference Materials
    • Conference Program Books
    • ERN Photo Galleries
    • Events | Opportunities
    • Exhibitor Info
    • HBCU-UP/CREST PI/PD Meeting
    • In the News
    • NSF Harassment Policy
    • Plenary Session Videos
    • Professional Development
    • Science Careers Handbook
    • Additional Resources
    • Archives
  • Engage
    • Webinars
    • ERN 10-Year Anniversary Videos
    • Plenary Session Videos
  • Contact Us
  • Login

Using Environmental and Natural History Traits to Predict OnGoing Global Amphibian Die-offs

Undergraduate #204
Discipline: Ecology Environmental and Earth Sciences
Subcategory: Ecology

Kristina Frogoso - University of Arkansas at Little Rock
Co-Author(s): Scott Connelly, Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA



Global losses in biodiversity are occurring at unprecedented rates. Declines in amphibian diversity play a large role in these losses. Many of the dramatic and on-going declines in amphibian populations are due to infectious diseases. One pathogen in particular that has been associated with widespread amphibian losses is the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which causes chytridiomycosis, an often fatal amphibian disease. A number of environmental factors may play a role in the prevalence and pathogenicity of Bd, and not all amphibian species are affected equally after exposure to the pathogen. Our study asks: Can we use environmental and amphibian natural history traits to help predict and prevent the decline of amphibians due to chytridiomycosis? A multiple linear regression model was created on RStudio to simulate the relationship between twelve environmental variables and the threat status of global amphibian species. Then, ten amphibian natural history traits were added in the explanatory variable to more fully characterize threat status. We made predictions of their threat status and compared the predicted to the actual threat status. Threat status was correctly predicted for 1799 species out of 2333, showing 77% accuracy. We applied the same methods to predict the threat status for species with unknown conservation status. The logistic regression analysis quantifying the relationship between natural history traits and predicted threat status showed that breeding site type (permanent or ephemeral) was the strongest predictor of threat status, with species using more permanent breeding sites tending to be more threatened (p < 0.05). This analysis showed that future research should focus on understanding of both environmental factors and an organism’s specific natural history characteristics to best predict the threat status for each species.

Funder Acknowledgement(s): National Science Foundation - Research Experiences for Undergraduates Program, Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Dr. John Drake

Faculty Advisor: Jim Winter,

Sidebar

Abstract Locators

  • Undergraduate Abstract Locator
  • Graduate Abstract Locator

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Grant No. DUE-1930047. Any opinions, findings, interpretations, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of its authors and do not represent the views of the AAAS Board of Directors, the Council of AAAS, AAAS’ membership or the National Science Foundation.

AAAS

1200 New York Ave, NW
Washington,DC 20005
202-326-6400
Contact Us
About Us

  • LinkedIn
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

The World’s Largest General Scientific Society

Useful Links

  • Membership
  • Careers at AAAS
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use

Focus Areas

  • Science Education
  • Science Diplomacy
  • Public Engagement
  • Careers in STEM

Focus Areas

  • Shaping Science Policy
  • Advocacy for Evidence
  • R&D Budget Analysis
  • Human Rights, Ethics & Law

© 2023 American Association for the Advancement of Science