Discipline: Mathematics and Statistics
Subcategory: Mathematics and Statistics
Aleta Allen - Norfolk State University
Co-Author(s): Alexandria Hood, Norfolk State University, Norfolk, VA
Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) is a sexual transmitted disease that is rising among college students. Almost 75% of new HPV infections occur in people between 15 and 24 years old. Many college students are not being informed on what and how they may contract HPV. In this study, a compartmental model will be developed to show how HPV is transmitted in the college student population. Using a modified susceptible, infectious and recovered model (SIR), the effect of social behavior is considered in the transmission of HPV among college students. The model also considers contact tracing which is used to determine how the disease is spread and how it can be reduced. The basic reproductive number, Ro, is determined using the Next Generation Operator (NGO) method. Typically, if Ro is less than one the disease will die out, but if the Ro is greater than one we will see a rise in the disease outbreak. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine how sensitive Ro is with respect to the model parameters. These insights help in controlling the transmission of HPV among our population. The results of this study are also represented using numerical analysis to show various scenarios of the epidemic of HPV among college students. Further investigation of the model will include the existence of bifurcation, how the HPV vaccination affects the model and whether different age groups are significant in the transmission.
Funder Acknowledgement(s): The authors would like to thank our professor and mentor Dr. Aprillya Lanz, for her continuous support during the process of this program. We acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation HBCU-UP Research Initiation Grant- 1505498.
Faculty Advisor: Aprillya Lanz,