Discipline: Mathematics and Statistics
Subcategory: Physiology and Health
Alexandria A. Hood - Norfolk State University
Co-Author(s): Aleta Allen, Norfolk State University, Norfolk, VA
Sexual transmitted diseases have partaken in an arising issue among college students for several years. Human Papilloma virus (HPV) has become one of the most common, and recent study has shown that 60% of female college students have been affected with the virus. In this study, a mathematical model that illustrates the transmission dynamics of HPV is developed. A modified susceptible, infected, and recovered (SIR) compartmental model is used to describe the effects of social behavior in the transmission of HPV. Contact tracing is implemented in the model to determine its effect in reducing the transmission. Using the Next Generation Operator (NGO), the disease epidemic threshold value known as the basic reproductive number, Ro, is determined. From this analysis, it is typically observed that when Ro is greater than unity, the disease will not be able to spread. Numerical simulations to describe various scenarios are performed using MATLAB. The results will be presented in the presentation. The research questions will be extended to investigate the existence of bifurcation, to include the HPV vaccination factor in the model and to determine whether age groups are significant in the transmission of HPV.
Key references: Elbasha, Elamin H. ‘Global stability of equilibria in a two-sex HPV vaccination model.’ Bulletin of mathematical biology 70.3 (2008): 894-909. Lee, Shernita L., and Ana M. Tameru. ‘A Mathematical Model of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) in the United States and its Impact on Cervical Cancer.’ Journal of Cancer 3 (2012): 262. Madubueze, C. E., T. B. Batubo, and E. P. Ejeh. ‘The Effect of Screening on Multiple Sexual Partners of the Dynamics of Human Papillomavirus Transmission.’ Mathematical Theory and Modeling 5.9 (2015): 43-53. Pongsumpun, P. ‘Mathematical Model of Cervical Cancer due to Human Papillomavirus Infection.’ Shaban, Nyimvua, and Hawa Mofi. ‘Modelling the Impact of Vaccination and Screening on the Dynamics of Human Papillomavirus Infection.’ (2014).
Funder Acknowledgement(s): The author would like to thank our professor and mentor, Dr. Aprillya Lanz, for her continuous support throughout the program. We also would like to acknowledge the support of this activity by the National Science Foundation HBCU-UP Research Initiation grant-1505498.
Faculty Advisor: Aprillya Lanz,